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Lessons from Gujarat & HP Elections


It would be fair to say that BJP's performance in Gujarat has been disappointing by the high standards that they have set for themselves. Their CM candidate for HP, lost even his own seat.

Although BJP has won both the elections comfortably, clearly some political calculations have gone wrong.

3 key lessonss from today's results

1) Development alone is not enough - Phase 1 of elections in Gujarat was fought largely on vikaas.  Phase 2 had a cocktail of Development, Hindutva, and Nationalism. All of BJP's losses were in Phase 1. BJP needs Hindutva and/or Nationalism to fire up its core vote base. Hindutva today is non-negotiable. Even Rahul Gandhi has realized this.

2) Saurashtra/Kutch Issues - Water remains an issue for both Saurashtra and Kutch. So far, one could blame the central UPA government for not completing the Sardar Sarovar dam. Today the dam stands completed but work on canals that will take water to villages is still to be done. This needs to completed asap to reverse the losses.

3) Local strong leadership - Gujaratis have always considered their state to be independent. This is a critical part of Asmita. There is a feeling today that Gujarat is being remotely controlled from Delhi. The only consolation is that it is being remotely controlled by Gujaratis. BJP needs a strong local leadership in place. In HP again, people expected a gen-next leader but got someone from the old guard.

BJP's issues with Gujarat are all internal and have nothing to do with Patel votes, DeMo or GST.  These can be easily fixed.

Congress is foolish to think that they have put up a respectable performance. With its Gujarat election campaign 2 of their key vote banks - Dalit and Muslim have been lost forever. Dalits will never forgive the Congress for deserting them by promising reservations to financially well off Patels. Muslims will never vote for a temple hopping jenueau dhari Hindu.

Even with a disappointing performance, BJP has emerged stronger but lessons from Gujarat should not be forgotten.

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