As the Narendra Modi government completes 2 years in office, I attempt to look back at he efforts underway to ensure that Modi does not win again in 2019. Connecting the dots leads me to a vary scary conclusion- pushing India towards a civil war or an un-rest seems to be the strategy to win 2019.
Given India's demography, there are only 2 ways a party can win elections
1) Consolidate the minority vote and split the Hindu vote.
2) Consolidate the Hindu vote. A 30% consolidation gives a simple majority. A 35%+ consolidation of Hindus give a 2/3rd majority.
2014 was won thanks to personality of Narendra Modi which lead to the consolidation of 30% of Hindu vote.
A three point strategy is well under way to defeat Modi in 2019
1) Stroke Hinduphobia - Hinduphobia has 2 benefits - its keeps the minorities united and against the Hindu community and makes a Hindu ashamed of his own identity. News of attacks on churches ( which turned out to be cases of arson), the beef controversy of Dadri, recent incidents of attacking important temples in the guise of women empowerment are all with the intent to create Hinduphobia. An environment will be created to prove that an empowered and confident Hindu is against the Idea of India. JNU is perfect example of how an institution can be used to stroke Hinduphobia.
The Hinduphobia brigade in India is well supported from Ivy League institutions from abroad which will continue to publish 'research' that classifies Hinduism as a regressive, violent religion that is highly sexual in nature. If Hinduphobia fails , the next wave will be 'Indiaphobia' i.e. how an emerging India will be threat to a stable, peaceful world order. Work in Indiaphobia has already begun in the West.
2) Civil war within Hindu society - The goal is to get one caste to fight against the other. Caste based reservation is an ideal tool to do this. Recent incidents of violence across India for caste based reservations which are now a bi-annual feature are a case in point. This 'us v/s them' battle will be created ... Dalits v/s the rest , Backwards v/s Brahmins. The goal is to push Hindu society towards a civil war.
As we approach 2019, the opposition in India will emerge with 2 promises that will further divide the Hindu society - increasing the reservation from 50% to 80% and extending reservation to the private sector and minorities. Nitish Kumar is already making attempts to unite parties under this agenda.
3) Economic Chaos - With a young country in need of job creation, wrecking the economy is a potent weapon. Preventing passage of any economic bills coupled with creating major labour un-rests/strikes (as seen in Bangalore last week) will further aid in de-stabilising the economy.
2016 is a very important year for India and the Narendra Modi government. 2014 was just a battle won, the war has just begun. The risks of loosing this war are great for India and Narendra Modi.
If the war is lost , India will stand divided and on the verge of a civil war. As for Narendra Modi, I fear that he will meet the same fate as the founders of BJP - Shyama Prasad Mukherjee and Deen Dayal Upadhyaya.
In my next blog, I will attempt to look at what can we done to counter this strategy.
Given India's demography, there are only 2 ways a party can win elections
1) Consolidate the minority vote and split the Hindu vote.
2) Consolidate the Hindu vote. A 30% consolidation gives a simple majority. A 35%+ consolidation of Hindus give a 2/3rd majority.
2014 was won thanks to personality of Narendra Modi which lead to the consolidation of 30% of Hindu vote.
A three point strategy is well under way to defeat Modi in 2019
1) Stroke Hinduphobia - Hinduphobia has 2 benefits - its keeps the minorities united and against the Hindu community and makes a Hindu ashamed of his own identity. News of attacks on churches ( which turned out to be cases of arson), the beef controversy of Dadri, recent incidents of attacking important temples in the guise of women empowerment are all with the intent to create Hinduphobia. An environment will be created to prove that an empowered and confident Hindu is against the Idea of India. JNU is perfect example of how an institution can be used to stroke Hinduphobia.
The Hinduphobia brigade in India is well supported from Ivy League institutions from abroad which will continue to publish 'research' that classifies Hinduism as a regressive, violent religion that is highly sexual in nature. If Hinduphobia fails , the next wave will be 'Indiaphobia' i.e. how an emerging India will be threat to a stable, peaceful world order. Work in Indiaphobia has already begun in the West.
2) Civil war within Hindu society - The goal is to get one caste to fight against the other. Caste based reservation is an ideal tool to do this. Recent incidents of violence across India for caste based reservations which are now a bi-annual feature are a case in point. This 'us v/s them' battle will be created ... Dalits v/s the rest , Backwards v/s Brahmins. The goal is to push Hindu society towards a civil war.
As we approach 2019, the opposition in India will emerge with 2 promises that will further divide the Hindu society - increasing the reservation from 50% to 80% and extending reservation to the private sector and minorities. Nitish Kumar is already making attempts to unite parties under this agenda.
3) Economic Chaos - With a young country in need of job creation, wrecking the economy is a potent weapon. Preventing passage of any economic bills coupled with creating major labour un-rests/strikes (as seen in Bangalore last week) will further aid in de-stabilising the economy.
2016 is a very important year for India and the Narendra Modi government. 2014 was just a battle won, the war has just begun. The risks of loosing this war are great for India and Narendra Modi.
If the war is lost , India will stand divided and on the verge of a civil war. As for Narendra Modi, I fear that he will meet the same fate as the founders of BJP - Shyama Prasad Mukherjee and Deen Dayal Upadhyaya.
In my next blog, I will attempt to look at what can we done to counter this strategy.
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