When you look for a apartment to rent in Bangalore, the most frequently asked question is - " Are you a vegetarian ?" The most frequently asked question when looking to rent in Patna is "Whats your caste ?"
That BJP lost is not a surprise for they suck at playing caste politics. They do not even have local leaders of the right caste to project as leaders. When Lalu and Nitish made it the battle between the forward and backward castes, they knew they had winning formula.
The formula for defeating the BJP is fairly simple - consolidate the minority vote and divide the Hindu vote based on caste. The only choice for the BJP is the consolidate the Hindu vote ( called as polarisation by some). BJP lost as it failed to drive enough consolidation and unity among castes.
Lossing a not necessary a bad thing. The BJP has gained much from the Bihar election
1) Expanded Vote Base - Elections are an opportunity to take your ideas and policies to the people. Every vote in your favour is an asset. BJP's grew its vote share to 25% compared to the 18% of the RJD and 16% of JDU. For the first time BJP contested on its own on a large majority of seats. This also helps in building an organisation for the future.
2) Corrupt Convict as an Alternative - Lalu emerged as a single largest party. Both BJP and JDU lost 40 seats as compared to their 2010 tally. Lalu gained 50+ seats as compared to 2010. Lalu will now take centre stage as counter narrative to Modi. Lalu will easily overshadow and overpower other alternatives like Kejriwal and Mayawati. In the national context its easier to take on Lalu.
3) Nitish is now optional - The tally of RJD and Congress together is 108 which is only 14 short of a simple majority. JDU and Nitish are completely optional. Lalu's goal is to get his family take over his legacy. For that he needs to get rid of Nitish. Its just a matter of time.
When election are fought as a battle between castes , governance is also reduced to battle between castes. Development will then be the first casualty.
BJP should not over analyse these results and focus on what its does best - develop and govern.
That BJP lost is not a surprise for they suck at playing caste politics. They do not even have local leaders of the right caste to project as leaders. When Lalu and Nitish made it the battle between the forward and backward castes, they knew they had winning formula.
The formula for defeating the BJP is fairly simple - consolidate the minority vote and divide the Hindu vote based on caste. The only choice for the BJP is the consolidate the Hindu vote ( called as polarisation by some). BJP lost as it failed to drive enough consolidation and unity among castes.
Lossing a not necessary a bad thing. The BJP has gained much from the Bihar election
1) Expanded Vote Base - Elections are an opportunity to take your ideas and policies to the people. Every vote in your favour is an asset. BJP's grew its vote share to 25% compared to the 18% of the RJD and 16% of JDU. For the first time BJP contested on its own on a large majority of seats. This also helps in building an organisation for the future.
2) Corrupt Convict as an Alternative - Lalu emerged as a single largest party. Both BJP and JDU lost 40 seats as compared to their 2010 tally. Lalu gained 50+ seats as compared to 2010. Lalu will now take centre stage as counter narrative to Modi. Lalu will easily overshadow and overpower other alternatives like Kejriwal and Mayawati. In the national context its easier to take on Lalu.
3) Nitish is now optional - The tally of RJD and Congress together is 108 which is only 14 short of a simple majority. JDU and Nitish are completely optional. Lalu's goal is to get his family take over his legacy. For that he needs to get rid of Nitish. Its just a matter of time.
When election are fought as a battle between castes , governance is also reduced to battle between castes. Development will then be the first casualty.
BJP should not over analyse these results and focus on what its does best - develop and govern.
Comments
Post a Comment