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Decoding Hardik Patel...

Our nation has been left stunned by the sudden rise of a 22 year old kid from Gujarat - Hardik Patel. Hardik launched himself with a rally attended by lakhs in Ahmedabad yesterday

So what took the nation by surprise....

1) Gujarat was also perceived by many Indians as a model state of governance and development. Gujarat bid adieu to caste based politics more than 30 years ago. In a day Hardik Patel changed the image of Gujarat from a model state to a caste ridden state similar to Bihar. The silence of many Gujaratis amplified Hardik's rise.

2) Equally shocking was the demand of reservation. Patels have always been a socially, politically and economically powerful community. It is surprising than an affluent upper caste section of society is demanding reservations. 

But there are 3 key factors driving the support that Hardik seems to be getting ..

a) Anger of the upper castes - Reservations have been around since 1992. They are now taking a toll on the upper castes..... if you are an average kid from the upper caste community who scores 80%, there is little hope for you in India. Till now the upper castes responded by sending their kids abroad. With seats in general category down to 20% in some cases, the upper castes like the Patels have finally decided to fight back. This anger has been simmering for some time now. It was visible when the Jats protested earlier 

b) Digital Business  - With the growth of digital businesses, the Patels have realised that access to education will be critical in building new innovative business models for the future. Traditional means of doing business will not sustain. While the Patels have adequate access to land, capital, its the limited access to education thats is hurting them. 

c) Patel Pride - For the last 20 years there has not been any state level leader of stature that the community can feel represents them adequately. A gentle grandmotherly Anandiben Patel does not effectively represent the 'macho' image of the community at large. 

When you combine wounded pride, anger and frustration from being denied access to education , you get a deadly cocktail. This cocktail finds expression in a maverick kid who has the potential to undo the gains of the last 20 years .....

What should Anandiben do .....

a) Nothing - Let Gujarat shutdown for a week. Patel's are a business community and every day of bandh means loss of business. Once the losses accumulate .... support to Hardik Patel will die a natural death.  Gujarat's image however will remain battered.

b) Invite Hardik Patel for talks - There are so many seasoned experienced leaders from the Patel community who will not allow Hardik to take the pole leadership position of their community. The other leaders will pull him down and Anandiben will have someone sensible to talk with ...

For Narendra Modi .... he stands to win no matter what happens ..... for if he resists the Patel demand for OBC status .... we will consolidate the 55% OBC vote bank ...... if he gives in it will mean the end of reservations as other upper castes will also lay claim ... he then consolidates the upper caste vote bank and also wins the support of the middle class which has always opposed reservations 

If I was Narendra Modi, I would invite my old friend from the RSS - Shankarsingh Vaghela to do a 'Ghar Wapsi'.... for he is one local leader who can turn the tide for him easily in Gujarat












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